Why Saudi Investment Hasn't Transformed The Magpies into Championship Challengers

The Newcastle manager isn't typically given to dramatics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his media briefing after the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a angry tirade. Newcastle took an early lead but the opposition were ahead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think that was a reflection of our performance level at that stage during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad needed some shaking up at the break. That’s why I made those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at half-time and the team did stabilise somewhat in the second half, but never really looking like they might get back into the game against a side that had secured just a single victory of their last nine league matches. Given how packed the middle of the table is, with just three points dividing the top spots from mid-table, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a sequence of 12 points from ten matches has not left Newcastle adrift but, equally, they cannot finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Problem of Expectations

The problem to an extent is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the richest owners in the world. The expectation when the Saudi fund acquired a majority stake of the team in recent years was that it would bring a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The distinction is that both of those investors took over prior to the introduction of FFP rules (while the ongoing allegations against Manchester City concern if they violated those guidelines after they were implemented).

Financial restrictions restrict the capacity of owners, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Saudi effort to elevate the team to the standard of City. However there is no need for the club's expenditure to have been so restrained as it has; they could have spent more and stayed inside the threshold – or simply taken a relatively meagre European fine given their major problem is more with the European than the Premier League rules.

Infrastructure Spending and Financial Regulations

Additionally, stadium development is excluded from PSR assessments; the simplest method to increase revenue to create more PSR flexibility would be to expand or renovate the stadium. Considering the site of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that likely means building an completely new stadium. There was talk in March of potentially undertaking the nearby relocation to a local park – resistance from community organizations could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the existing stadium site – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of projects as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to the football club seems entirely in keeping with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Situation

The Alexander Isak episode was born of that tension. A bolder leadership could have portrayed his sale as necessary to release capital for additional investment; rather there was a unsuccessful attempt to retain him. That meant the team began the season amid a sense of disappointment despite the signings of several new players. The opening was indifferent: one win in their initial six fixtures.

But it seemed a turning point was reached. They had won five in six prior to the weekend, a streak that featured demolitions of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the display against the Hammers was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s style is extremely intense, very high-octane; a minor decrease in intensity can have significant effects. Maybe the pressure of domestic, European and Carabao Cup competition, five games in a fortnight, had got to them. The German forward started all five matches and appeared particularly weary.

Reality of Modern Football

This is the nature of today's football. Managers must be ready to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that the forward's injury has meant he is short of attacking options but, regardless of how reasonable the reasons, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a ground primed to criticize its own side.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when all players is below par simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the European competition in the future, let alone eventually launch an genuine championship bid, they cannot be as inconsistent as this.