Voting Begins in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.