Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Putin

Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a firm stance on Ukraine. After issuing statements of "severe repercussions" last August in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking ceasefire talks, the former president eventually imposed major restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously impacted Putin's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, Trump persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, implying handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred area of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible governance that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting Russia with area that its military have been unable to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions severely compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital should he later choose to restart the war.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a action that would make renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the plan imposes no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan states: "All Nazi ideology and practices must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of captured land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should the international community have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics vary from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from stationing forces on the nation's land, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not